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Studies on the effect of climate change on water resources in the 21st century indicate an increase in intense rainfall, an increase in the duration of the dry season, and a decrease in snowfall and, accordingly, snow cover. Based on data from the EURO-CORDEX project, the average multi-year monthly runoff amounts (Copernicus Climate Change Service, Climate Data Store, 2021) for each 30-year period and for the reference period for a rectangular area covering the territory of Bulgaria have been calculated. Climatic ...

This article presents a reproducible workflow for deriving gridded total runoff threshold layers for Bulgaria and the adjacent regional domain. ERA5-Land hourly runoff for 1981-2025 was first converted from accumulated fields to hourly increments following the ERA5-Land accumulation convention [4][7]. Annual maxima were then derived for 1 h, 3 h, 6 h and 24 h totals, and fixed annual exceedance probability (AEP) return levels were estimated for 1% and 5%. The fine resolution product uses D(Q) downscaling: return l...