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Title: COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL MODELS FOR ASSESSING THE PROBABILITY OF BANKRUPTCY OF ENTERPRISES
COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL MODELS FOR ASSESSING THE PROBABILITY OF BANKRUPTCY OF ENTERPRISES

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V. F. Turygina;J. Vasilev;A. S. Safrygin;A. N. Nizov;N. D. Panteleeva
10.5593/sgem2019/2.1/S07.023
1314-2704
978-619-7408-79-9
English
19
2.1
Informatics
The article is devoted to the study of the effectiveness of various statistical models of the probability of bankruptcy of enterprises based on the examples of the modified Altman model and the model of Sayfulin and Kadykov. A comparison of the results of applying these models showed that in many cases they give opposite results.
The reason for the differences is that the Altman model is based on statistics of bankruptcies of American enterprises in 1946-1965, and the model of Saifulin and Kadykov is based on statistics of bankruptcies of Russian enterprises of the 2000s. In this regard, the end results of using these models for Russian enterprises may be different, in particular:
1) In the case of underestimation of the probability of bankruptcy - the acceleration of the bankruptcy of the enterprise as a result of the lack of timely developed anti-crisis measures;
2) In the event of a reassessment of the probability of bankruptcy - the unjustified conduct of anti-crisis measures that provide for the reduction of entrepreneurial risk and may lead to a decrease in the potential profit of the enterprise.
Thus, enterprises need a more accurate diagnosis of bankruptcy, based on statistical data, taking into account the specifics of the economic activities of a particular country or region. For Russian enterprises, the local Saifulin and Kadykov model, based on the Russian specifics of bankruptcies, is more preferable than the more general standard Altman model.
conference
https://www.sgem.org/index.php/jresearch-article?citekey=Turygina20197175180
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19th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2019
19th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2019, 30 June - 6 July, 2019
Proceedings Paper
STEF92 Technology
International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference-SGEM
Bulgarian Acad Sci; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Russian Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci & Arts; Slovak Acad Sci; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; World Acad Sci; European Acad Sci, Arts & Letters; Ac
175-180
30 June - 6 July, 2019
website
cdrom
5345
statistical model; probability; diagnostics of bankruptcy