Peer-reviewed articles 17,970 +


Title: SIMULATING LARGE-SCALE WILDFIRES AND COMMUNITY EXPOSURE: A FRAMEWORK AND APPLICATION IN MACEDONIA, GREECE
SIMULATING LARGE-SCALE WILDFIRES AND COMMUNITY EXPOSURE: A FRAMEWORK AND APPLICATION IN MACEDONIA, GREECE

PlumX Article Metrics by Elsevier
P. Palaiologou;K. Kalabokidis;L. Papalampros;S. Galatsidas
10.5593/sgem2020V/1.3/s03.42
1314-2704
978-619-7603-17-0
English
20
1.3
Forest Ecosystems
In this work, we provide a framework for assessing cross-boundary wildfire exposure and a case study application in the region of Macedonia, Greece. The required spatial layers describing topography, fuels/ vegetation and ignition location were retrieved from open-access international and national databases, while climate data were obtained from remote automatic weather stations. We processed the spatial layers to derive the required inputs for the Minimum Travel Time fire spread algorithm. Hourly and daily weather data were used to derive the most frequent wind directions and to characterize the extreme wind speed scenarios for the season with the lowest dead and live fuel moisture contents (July and August). The study region was divided into 30 zones of similar climatic conditions and historical wildfire activity (i.e., simulation scenarios that included simulation duration, wind data, fuel moisture content and spotting probability). For model calibration, we replicated the historical large wildfire size (>50 ha) distribution of each zone by simulating thousands of potential wildfires with the derived simulation scenarios. Ignitions were allocated within burnable fuels according to an ignition probability grid developed from a historical fire occurrence database. We simulated over 300,000 fires, each independently modelled with constant weather conditions considering a randomly chosen simulation scenario. Scenario selection was based on a predefined selection probability derived by the historical wind direction frequency and fire duration of the ignition location zone. Simulations generated a layer of fire perimeters and raster estimates of annual burn probabilities and conditional flame length. Results were used to estimate community exposure by intersecting simulated fire perimeters with community polygons. The number of exposed structures was assigned to each simulated fire ignition, estimating its influence on each community (one ignition to many communities). The post-processing of these ignitions generated community firesheds, which delineate the area around communities where large fires are likely to be transmitted to the burnable and populated community area polygons. We found that on 9,250 km2, or the 27% of the study area, potential ignitions can grow large enough to reach communities and cause structure exposure. The proposed framework can guide future efforts aimed at quantifying community exposure to large-scale wildfires and guide investments to prioritize fuel management activities to reduce fire risk.
conference
https://www.sgem.org/index.php/jresearch-article?citekey=Palaiologou20203339350
Download PDF
20th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2020, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGIES IN GEOLOGY, OIL AND GAS EXPLORATION, WATER RESOURCES, FOREST ECOSYSTEMS
20th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2020, 8-11 December, 2020
Proceedings Paper
STEF92 Technology
SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference
SWS Scholarly Society; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Russian Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci & Arts; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; European Acad Sci, Arts & Letters; Acad Fine Arts Zagreb Croatia; C
339-350
8-11 December, 2020
website
cdrom
7649
Wildfire Simulations;Wildland-Urban Interface;Minimum Travel Time;Fuel Management;Community Fire Risk