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Title: IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL QUANTITIES IN WATERSHED SCALE
IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL QUANTITIES IN WATERSHED SCALE

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Martin Bednar; Daniel Marton
10.5593/sgem2022V/3.2/s12.11
10.5593/sgem2022V/3.2
1314-2704
978-619-7603-54-5
English
22
3.2
•    Prof. DSc. Oleksandr Trofymchuk, UKRAINE 
•    Prof. Dr. hab. oec. Baiba Rivza, LATVIA
Hydrology and Water Resources
Climate change’s effect on nature, the human population and water resources have become a serious issue. It affects the delicate balance between precipitation, evaporation, discharge and other interactions between the atmosphere and surface, which is represented by the water cycle as we know it. The adaptation of water resources to changing hydrological conditions within basins is crucial. However, the uncertainty of climate change makes it difficult for hydrological models to evaluate future conditions. To suppress the uncertainty that stems from the hydrological model itself, we propose a new modified lumped water balance model in monthly time steps to simulate the rainfallrunoff process more precisely, which will help to evaluate the predicted hydrological and climatological conditions under the uncertainty of climate change. Assessment of the effects of climate change is presented on the catchment above the Vir I reservoir on the Svratka River in the Czech Republic in Central Europe. The uncertainty of climate change is represented by an ensemble of future climatological projections using representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios. Two ensembles were generated: the first using RCP 4.5 and the second using RCP 8.5. Both scenarios were coupled with 18 global climate models which are available in LARS-WG 6 software. Analysis of the generated climatological quantities for both ensembles in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2090s periods on annual average relative to baseline values showed an increase in mean temperature of 21.4% (1.4°C), 33.1% (2.2°C) and 55.5% (3.7°C), an increase of potential evapotranspiration of 7.2%, 11.4% and 20.5%, and an increase in precipitation of 4.8%, 5.3% and 5.5%, respectively. Evaluated long-term mean streamflow showed a decrease in the 2030s, 2050s and 2090 of 1.0%, 3.1% and 2.9%, respectively, for RCP 4.5 and an increase of 1.8% in the 2030s but then also a decrease in the 2050s and 2090s of 2.3% and 17.9%, respectively, for RCP 8.5.
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This paper was supported by the junior research project FAST-J-22-7863 ‘Sustainable water resources management under the climatological conditions in the Czech Republic’.
conference
https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2022V/3.2/s12.11
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Proceedings of 22nd International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2022
22nd International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2022, 06-08 December, 2022
Proceedings Paper
STEF92 Technology
International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM
SWS Scholarly Society; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci and Arts; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; European Acad Sci, Arts and Letters; Acad Fine Arts Zagreb Croatia; Croatian Acad Sci and Arts; Acad Sci Moldova; Montenegrin Acad Sci and Arts; Georgian Acad Sci; Acad Fine Arts and Design Bratislava; Turkish Acad Sci.
91-100
06-08 December, 2022
website
8775
Lumped model, rainfall-runoff, climate change, water balance, RCP scenarios