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Title: THE INFLUENCE OF THE FORECAST MODEL ERROR ON OPTIMIZING THE STORAGE FUNCTION CONTROL OF THE RESERVOIR USING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE FORECAST MODEL ERROR ON OPTIMIZING THE STORAGE FUNCTION CONTROL OF THE RESERVOIR USING

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Tomas Kozel; Pavel Skarecky
10.5593/sgem2022V/3.2/s12.25
10.5593/sgem2022V/3.2
1314-2704
978-619-7603-54-5
English
22
3.2
•    Prof. DSc. Oleksandr Trofymchuk, UKRAINE 
•    Prof. Dr. hab. oec. Baiba Rivza, LATVIA
Hydrology and Water Resources
One of the ways to manage drought is to use optimization when managing the storage function of reservoirs. Optimizing reservoir management itself requires inflow forecasts. A lot of forecasting models have been created in the world, which according to many authors can be used for the given purpose. The models themselves are generally assessed according to classical criteria. The article therefore attempts to determine whether the quality of the forecast model for the mentioned application can be assessed as a whole (the model must be able to predict the entire interval of occurrence of flows) or whether the local quality of the model is sufficient (the model can predict a defined interval of occurrence of flows with good quality). For this purpose, a fictitious forecasting model was built that makes predictions based on real flow series and white noise. The predictions created in this way are then used to control the real reservoir using the deterministic evolution method. The achieved results are then compared with the results when a directly real series was used for control. The results themselves may be somewhat surprising, as certain combinations of the fictitious model predictions achieved better results than the results obtained using the real values according to the chosen criterion.
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Paper was supported by grant FAST-S-22-8010.
conference
https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2022V/3.2/s12.25
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Proceedings of 22nd International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2022
22nd International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2022, 06-08 December, 2022
Proceedings Paper
STEF92 Technology
International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM
SWS Scholarly Society; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci and Arts; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; European Acad Sci, Arts and Letters; Acad Fine Arts Zagreb Croatia; Croatian Acad Sci and Arts; Acad Sci Moldova; Montenegrin Acad Sci and Arts; Georgian Acad Sci; Acad Fine Arts and Design Bratislava; Turkish Acad Sci.
215-222
06-08 December, 2022
website
8789
Storage function, large open reservoir, differential evolution, forecast error