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Title: ANALYSIS OF THE TRENDS, HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF THE COMPLEX DAMS INFLOW AND THE WATER SUPPLY VULNERABILITY ALONG THE BLACK SEA
ANALYSIS OF THE TRENDS, HYDROLOGICAL REGIME OF THE COMPLEX DAMS INFLOW AND THE WATER SUPPLY VULNERABILITY ALONG THE BLACK SEA

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Anna Yordanova; Irena Ilcheva; Krasimira Ljubenova; Vesela Rainova; Gergana Drumeva
10.5593/sgem2023/3.1/s12.04
10.5593/sgem2023/3.1
1314-2704
978-619-7603-58-3
English
23
3.1
•    Prof. DSc. Oleksandr Trofymchuk, UKRAINE 
•    Prof. Dr. hab. oec. Baiba Rivza, LATVIA
Hydrology and Water Resources
Climate factors are already exerting negative pressure on water resources, society and ecosystems. The analysis of trends and identification of vulnerable water supply areas is related to the River Basin Management Plans. For this end, a methodology for assessment of water resources vulnerability, developed in international projects of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH), is adapted. The methodology is further developed by drought risk assessment. The main stages are: 1) Assessment of the climate factors and trends; 2) Evaluation of the trends in water resource alterations, under different scenarios or drought; 3) Developing a calculation scheme of the Water Management System; 4) Assessment of the water consumption and ecological flow; 5) Assessment of vulnerability of water resources and prolonged drought risk assessment. Identification of “critical areas” and the so-called “hot spots”; 6) Analysis of measures and adaptive management. The methodology is applied for Black sea region. In this report the main trends, the evaluated risks and the analyzed influence of climate change and extreme phenomena on water are represented. Emphasis is given to the assessment of the water resources and inflows to the complex and significant dams in the area. Investigations concerning the significance of trends in runoff change using the Mann- Kendall test are carried out. A trend analysis of the groundwater levels reduction according to NIMH operational monitoring data is performed. A new approach for prolonged drought assessment by integrated analysis of the indices from NIMH drought identification system (SPI, SRI and SMI), the indicators used by the Ministry of Environment and Water (reservoirs inflow and levels) and groundwater, is applied. The vulnerable areas are identified – water supply from reservoirs in cases of prolonged drought, some Natura 2000 areas, etc.
[1] An update of the data used for the inflows in the dams from Appendix 1 of the Water Law for the needs of the annual schedules for the use of their waters, Agreement with the Ministry of Environment and Water, 2015
[2] Bocheva, L., T. Marinova, Ts. Nikolova, Comparative analysis of severe storms, connected with extreme precipitation in Bulgaria (1951-2010), J. of International Scientific Publications: Ecology and Safety, Volume 8, ISSN 1314-723, pp 461-468, 2014
[3] Bojilova, Е., River basin modeling under future climate conditions, Danube Conference 26-28, September, 558-569, 2017
[4] Determination of the minimum acceptable flow in the river beds after the complex dams according to the current Water Law, Ministry of Environment and Water, 2022, Project manager I.Ilcheva
[5] Determining the regulatory capabilities of the Yasna polyana reservoir, Agreement with the Ministry of Environment and Water, 2014, Project manager I.Niagolov
[6] Development of rules for management of reservoirs from Annex 1 to the Water Act, Agreement with the MoEW, Ticha and Kamchia dams, 2019 – 2021, O.Santurdjian
[7] Guidelines for the use of SRI, SPI3 and SMI indices synchronously. Development of recommendations for interpretation of indicators for assessment of drought, Agreement with the Ministry of Environment and Water, 2021, Project managers I.Ilcheva and L.Bocheva
[8] Ilcheva, I., A.Yordanova, Kr. Ljubenova, G. Drumeva, Y. Dimitrov, Approach and an Indicator system for prolonged drought identification in Bulgaria, Bul. J. Meteo & Hydro 26/2, 2022
[9] Marinov, Iv., G. Popov, V. Spiridonov, S. Balabanova, T. Lubenov, Changes of the ecological conditions in the watershed of Ticha dam in result of the expected climate change, Forest science, No 1/2, 2014, pp.23-34
[10] Mitigating Vulnerability of Water Resources under Climate Change, Executive Forest Agency, Forest University, Forest Research Institute and NIMH, 2014, http://www.iag.bg/docs/lang/1/cat/5/index
[11] Ninov, Pl., I. Ribarova, Tz. Karagiozova, Using a calibrated hydrological model to develop different climatic scenarios, XXV Conference of the Danube Countries, Hungary, ISBN 978-963-511-151-0, 2011
[12] Spiridonov, V., Balabanova, Sn, Influence of climate change (by 2050) on the intensive rainfall on the territory of Bulgaria, Bul. J. Meteo & Hydro 22/5, pp 26-37, 2017
[13] Stoyanova, V., Balabanova, S., Koshinchanov, G., Yordanova, V., Stoyanova, S.,A combined hydrological and hydraulic model for flood applied to the downstream Kamchia river, SGEM, 22 (3.1), pp 17 – 24, 2022
[14] Zaharieva, V., Mathematical models for minimum river flow determination. Annual of the University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy, Vol. XLI, 2004
Thanks to the Ministry of Environment and Water for the support and to the experts from Executive Forest Agency, Forest Research Institute and NIMH, we work with to assess climate changes and water resources.
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https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2023/3.1/s12.04
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Proceedings of 23rd International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2023
23rd International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2023, 03 - 09 July, 2023
Proceedings Paper
STEF92 Technology
International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM
SWS Scholarly Society; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Russian Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci and Arts; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; European Acad Sci, Arts and Letters; Acad Fine Arts Zagreb Croatia; Croatian Acad Sci and Arts; Acad Sci Moldova; Montenegrin Acad Sci and Arts; Georgian Acad Sci; Acad Fine Arts and Design Bratislava; Russian Acad Arts; Turkish Acad Sci.
27-34
03 - 09 July, 2023
website
9127
trend, climate change, vulnerability, drought risk, Water Framework Directive

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