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Title: RECENT CLIMATE ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN BULGARIA – BRIEF ANALYSIS
RECENT CLIMATE ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IN BULGARIA – BRIEF ANALYSIS

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Lilia Bocheva; Krastina Malcheva; Hristo Chervenkov
10.5593/sgem2023/4.1/s19.41
10.5593/sgem2023/4.1
1314-2704
978-619-7603-59-0
English
23
4.1
•    Prof. DSc. Oleksandr Trofymchuk, UKRAINE 
•    Prof. Dr. hab. oec. Baiba Rivza, LATVIA
Air Pollution and Climate Change
The main goal of the analysis presented in the paper is to contribute to a clearer understanding of climate changes in Bulgaria, assessing the long-term changes in annual characteristics of surface temperature and precipitation in the period 1961-2020 and providing climate projections to the end of the 21st century. During the last decades of the 20th century, a tendency towards warming occurred in Bulgaria. Since the 1990s, only four years have had negative temperature anomalies compared to the reference period 1961-1990. Changes in the precipitation regime are also apparent, with increasing frequency of days with both torrential rainfall and dry, hot weather. The analysis of future climate is focused on the projected changes under the four RCP climate change scenarios for selected ETCCDI climate indices, computed on a yearly basis: absolute maximum temperature (TXx), absolute minimum temperature (TNn), the maximum number of consecutive frost days (CFD), the maximum number of consecutive summer days (CSU), precipitation sum (RR), number of heavy precipitation days (RR10mm) and maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD). The projected significant warming is manifested in the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of all considered temperature indicators. Despite the predicted decreasing precipitation trend, especially in Southeast Bulgaria, the changes are statistically significant only for scenario RCP8.5.
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Since this study used freely available data and software, the authors would like to express their deep gratitude to all organizations and institutions (the R Core and QGIS teams, MPI-M, and others) which provide free-of-charge software and data.
conference
https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2023/4.1/s19.41
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Proceedings of 23rd International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2023
23rd International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2023, 03 - 09 July, 2023
Proceedings Paper
STEF92 Technology
International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM
SWS Scholarly Society; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Russian Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci and Arts; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; European Acad Sci, Arts and Letters; Acad Fine Arts Zagreb Croatia; Croatian Acad Sci and Arts; Acad Sci Moldova; Montenegrin Acad Sci and Arts; Georgian Acad Sci; Acad Fine Arts and Design Bratislava; Russian Acad Arts; Turkish Acad Sci.
323-330
03 - 09 July, 2023
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climate change, climate indices, RCP scenarios, Bulgaria