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Title: DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL AREAS IN BULGARIA AND FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NUMBER OF THE POPULATION FOR THE PERIOD 2023-2027
DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL AREAS IN BULGARIA AND FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NUMBER OF THE POPULATION FOR THE PERIOD 2023-2027

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Rositza Mikova
10.5593/sgem2023/5.1/s21.46
10.5593/sgem2023/5.1
1314-2704
978-619-7603-60-6
English
23
5.1
•    Prof. DSc. Oleksandr Trofymchuk, UKRAINE 
•    Prof. Dr. hab. oec. Baiba Rivza, LATVIA
Environmental Economics
The serious demographic crisis in rural areas of the country poses great challenges to the implementation of the strategic plan for the development of agriculture and rural areas for the period 2023-2027. This determines the purpose of the publication, namely to develop and build scenarios based on them to make recommendations regarding the need for urgent, complex and non-traditional measures to overcome the demographic crisis. The estimated values of the indicators were used to prepare the scenarios: the birth rate, the mortality rate, the number of the population and the migration balance. In the calculation of the estimated values of the indicators, the method of the aging of the population was applied. The years 2019 and 2020 have been chosen as the base period. Based on the proposed three demographic scenarios, the most likely to occur is "moderate". The further trend of reduction of the population in rural areas is outlined, because the influence of natural growth on demographic processes will have a dominant influence compared to migration processes. In order not to realize the negative forecast outlined in the publication, there are some proposals for the development of regional demographic policies for the lagging parts of the country, which will help the demographic salvation of rural areas.
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[4] Kazakov, B., (2015) Typology of villages in the South-East according to the demographic situation, Problems of Geography. vol. 1-2, pp. 59-67
[5] Mikova, R. (2022) Regional comparative analysis of the health and educational infrastructure in the rural areas of Bulgaria. Bulgarian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Management, vol.2, pp.35-42
[6] Mikova, R. (2021) Trends and peculiarities in the development of the birth rate in the rural areas of South Central Bulgaria. Jubilee scientific-practical conference "Agribusiness and rural areas - economy, innovation and Growth. The university of Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Varna, June 18
[7] Eurostat (2010) Work session on demographic projections. Eurostat Methodologies and working papers, Lasbon, EC. Luxemburg
[8] The Strategic Plan for the Development of Agriculture and Rural Areas of the Republic of Bulgaria for the period 2023-2027
[9] National Statistical Institute, www.nsi.bg
conference
https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2023/5.1/s21.46
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Proceedings of 23rd International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2023
23rd International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2023, 03 - 09 July, 2023
Proceedings Paper
STEF92 Technology
International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM
SWS Scholarly Society; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci and Arts; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; European Acad Sci, Arts and Letters; Acad Fine Arts Zagreb Croatia; Croatian Acad Sci and Arts; Acad Sci Moldova; Montenegrin Acad Sci and Arts; Georgian Acad Sci; Acad Fine Arts and Design Bratislava; Turkish Acad Sci.
361-368
03 - 09 July, 2023
website
9313
scenarios, forecasts, birth rate, death rate, migration balance, rural areas