Peer-reviewed articles 17,970 +


Title: PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS FOR THE CITY OF VARNA
PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS FOR THE CITY OF VARNA

PlumX Article Metrics by Elsevier
Dimcho Solakov; Stela Simeonova; Plamena Raykova
10.5593/sgem2024/1.1/s05.651
10.5593/sgem2024/1.1
1314-2704
978-619-7603-67-5
English
24
1.1
•    Prof. DSc. Oleksandr Trofymchuk, UKRAINE 
•    Prof. Dr. hab. oec. Baiba Rivza, LATVIA
5.Applied and Environmental Geophysics
In the present study probabilistic earthquake, scenarios for the city of Varna the third-largest earthquake-prone city in Bulgaria are presented.
The probabilistic hazard for a city is obtained by integrating the effects of ground motion from earthquakes of different size occurring at different locations within different seismic source regions and with different frequencies of occurrence.
The ground motion maps for the city of Varna are generated combining via GIS, source geometry, earthquake occurrence model, maximum earthquake magnitude, and the appropriate attenuation relations. The probabilistic scenario maps are created in terms of MSK intensity, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and response spectral accelerations for 95- and 475-year return periods. The estimated values of PGA for 95- and 475-year return periods vary along the city from 0.08 to 0.11 and from 0.15g to 0.23g) respectively. For the considered return periods the macroseismic intensity (MSK) vary from 6.4 to 6.8 and from 7.4 to 7.8 (for 95 and 475-year return period respectively).
The main objective of the study is to integrate basic geo-datasets and to assess the seismic hazard using GIS to provide a basis for disaster management of the city of Varna. Spatial distribution of the obtained results is available in GIS format and can be used not only for scientific purposes but also for practical measures to reduce the risk and limit the consequences of a future strong earthquake.
[1] Watzof S., Earthquakes in Bulgaria. Report on the earthquakes felt in 1901. Central Meteor. Inst., S., pp.39 (in Bulgarian, abstract in French), 1902
[2] Faccioli F. and V. Pessina V., WP2 Basis of a handbook of earthquake ground motions scenarios, RISK-UE, EVK4-CT-2000-00014, 2003
[3] Solakov D., S. Simeonova. P. Raykova, Deterministic earthquake scenario for the city of Varna. In: 22 International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference: Science and Technologies in Geology, Exploration and Mining, SGEM 2022, Albena August 2022
[4] Cornell, C., Engineering seismic risk analysis. BSSA 5, pp.1583, 1968
[5] Bommer, J., Abrahamson, N., Why Do Modern Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analyses Often Lead to Increased Hazard Estimates? Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 96, No. 6, pp. 1967–1977, 2006
[6] McGuire, R., FORTRAN Computer Program for Seismic Risk Analysis, U.S. Geol. Surv. 491 Open-File Rep. 76–67, U.S., Rep. 1–90, 1976
[7] Solakov, D., Simeonova, S., Trifonova, P., Georgiev, I., Raykova, P., Metodiev, M., Aleksandrova, I., Building Seismic Risk Management, Part 1 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment BAS Publ. House, Sofia, pp. 13-110, 2019 (in Bulgarian).
[8] Gutenberg, B., Richter, C.F., Frequency of earthquakes in California. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 497, 34, pp. 185–188, 1944
[9] Vacareanu R., M. Radulian, M. Iancovici, F. Pavel, and C. Neagu.. Fore-arc and back-arc ground motion prediction model for Vrancea intermediate depth seismic source. Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 19(3): 535-562.
[10] Scherbaum, F., Delavaud E. and Riggelsen C., Model Selection in Seismic Hazard Analysis An Information-Theoretic Perspective, BSSA, 99(6), pp. 3234–3247, 2009
[11] Basili R., Kastelic V., Demircioglu M., Garcia Moreno D., Nemser E., Petricca P., Sboras S., Besana-Ostman G., Cabral J., Camelbeeck T., Caputo R., Danciu L., Domac H., Fonseca J., Garcia-Mayordomo J., Giardini D., Glavatovic B., Gulen L., Ince Y., Pavlides S., Sesetyan K., Tarabusi G., Tiberti M., Utkucu M., Valensise G., Vanneste K., Vilanova S., Wossner J. The European Database of Seismogenic Faults (EDSF) compiled in the framework of the Project SHARE. http://diss.rm.ingv.it/share-edsf/, doi: 10.6092/INGV.IT-SHARE-EDSF, 2013
[12] Delavaud E, Scherbaum F., Kuhn N., Allen T., Testing the Global Applicability of Ground-Motion Prediction Equations for Active Shallow Crustal Regions, Bull. of the Seism Soc. of America, 102(2):707 http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120110113, 2012
[13] Kulkarni, R., Youngs, R., Coppersmith, K., Assessment of confidence intervals for results of 501 seismic hazard analysis. In: Proceedings of the 8th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, vol. 1, pp. 263, San Francisco, California, 1984
[14] Coppersmith, K., Youngs, R., Capturing uncertainty in probabilistic seismic hazard assessments 504 within intraplate environments. In: Proceedings of the 3rd National Conference on Earthquake Engineering, vol. I, pp, 301, Charleston, August 24–28, 1986
[15] Shebalin N.V. V. Karnik and D. Hadzievski (Еditors), Catalogue of earthquakes of the Balkan Region. Part III, Atlas of Isoseismal maps. UNDP/UNESCO Survey of the seismicity of the Balkan region, UNESCO, Skopje, 275, 1974
This work has been carried out in the framework of the National Science Program "Environmental Protection and Reduction of Risks of Adverse Events and Natural Disasters", approved by the Resolution of the Council of Ministers № 577/17.08.2018 and supported by the Ministry of Education and Science (MES) of Bulgaria (Agreement № Д01-271/09.12.2022).
conference
https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2024/1.1/s05.651
Download PDF
Proceedings of 24th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2024
24th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2024, 1 - 7 July, 2024
Proceedings Paper
STEF92 Technology
International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference Surveying Geology and Mining Ecology Management, SGEM
SWS Scholarly Society; Acad Sci Czech Republ; Latvian Acad Sci; Polish Acad Sci; Russian Acad Sci; Serbian Acad Sci and Arts; Natl Acad Sci Ukraine; Natl Acad Sci Armenia; Sci Council Japan; European Acad Sci, Arts and Letters; Acad Fine Arts Zagreb Croatia; Croatian Acad Sci and Arts; Acad Sci Moldova; Montenegrin Acad Sci and Arts; Georgian Acad Sci; Acad Fine Arts and Design Bratislava; Russian Acad Arts; Turkish Acad Sci.
523-530
1 - 7 July, 2024
website
9894
earthquake, probabilistic earthquake scenario, GIS, the city of Varna

25th SGEM International Conference on Earth & Planetary Sciences


International GeoConference SGEM2025
27 June - 6 July, 2025 / Albena, Bulgaria

Read More		   

SGEM Vienna GREEN "Green Science for Green Life"


Extended Scientific Sessions SGEM Vienna GREEN
3 -6 December, 2025 / Vienna, Austria

Read More
   

A scientific platform for Art-Inspired Scientists!


The Magical World Where Science meets Art
Vienna, Austria

Read More