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WIND POWER PREDICTION IN THE DOBROGEA REGION OF ROMANIA
Abstract
In the current context, characterized by the alarming increase in pollution caused by energy production from fossil fuels it is becoming increasingly important to reduce this dependence. Wind energy can be a very good solution to global energy problems. Romania's wind potential is considered one of the largest in Europe, the Dobrogea region having the largest wind potential in Romania. The objective of this paper is to draw an image of the near future projection of the wind potential in this region. The problem of wind power prediction is addressed in this work using a statistical prediction model, namely the moving average method. This analysis is based on reanalysis data coming from ECMWF (The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) for the Dobrogea region of Romania. The initial target period covers 35 years of data, more precisely from 01 January 1983 to 31 December 2018. By analyzing the zonal (z) and meridional (v) components of the wind speed at 10 meter height, we can evaluate the wind conditions. The obtained results show that an accurate forecast of wind speed can be made if the environmental conditions are reliably estimated.
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