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ASSESSING GROWING IRRIGATION SUPPLY FROM A SMALL LOWLAND RIVER USING AN ANALOGUE - RIVER APROACH
Abstract
Global climate change is intensifying hydrological variability and water scarcity, increasing the need for adaptive irrigation in small agricultural catchments. This study applies the analogue-river approach to evaluate the irrigation potential of the small lowland Kulpe River in northern Lithuania, which lacks discharge observations. Long-term flow data (2006 2021) from the hydrologically similar Daugyvene River were used to estimate the Kulpe s discharge parameters. The mean annual discharge was 1.18 m /s, corresponding to an annual runoff of 36.84 million m . Statistical analysis revealed that flow varies between 0.074 2.07 m /s in dry years, 0.26 3.99 m /s in average years, and 0.54 5.54 m /s in wet years. In all scenarios, discharge exceeded the environmental-flow threshold (0.057 m /s), indicating that irrigation abstraction can be feasible while maintaining ecological balance. Including treated wastewater (0.24 0.28 m /s) further increases the allocable discharge to 0.28 5.74 m /s. Based on FAO-56 calculations, irrigation demand was 2600 3000 m /ha for strawberries (Fragaria ananassa) and 3200 3600 m /ha for carrots (Daucus carota). Under average conditions, the Kulpe River could supply enough water to irrigate 2000 2500 ha without breaching ecological limits, showing that small lowland rivers can serve as strategic local irrigation sources in the Baltic region.
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