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CLIMATOLOGY OF EXTREMELY HOT SPELLS IN BULGARIA (1961-2019)
Abstract
The climatology of hot days and extremely hot spells on the territory of Bulgaria has been studied on the basis of daily data for maximum air temperature during the warm half-year in the period 1961–2019 from 115 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH). The empirical distributions of daily maximum air temperatures by selected stations representative of the non-mountainous regions of the country (below 1000 m altitude) have been investigated to determine the corresponding percentiles and the range of high temperatures characteristic for the climate of the country. In accordance with the obtained estimates, three climate indicators of hot weather have been defined and analyzed, based on samples of daily maximum temperatures at a 32 °C threshold and various duration – an annual number of hot days, a maximum number of consecutive hot days and duration of extremely hot spells. Since the mid-1980s, the cases of hot spells at threshold values 32 °C, 34 °C, 36 °C, 38 °C and 40 °C and corresponding duration at least 6, 5, 4, 3 and 2 consecutive days increased sharply. Statistically significant increasing trend of the annual number of hot days occurred in over 90% of the stations (3.5 days/10 years on average). The study demonstrates the application of two gridded datasets (ProData and E-OBS v21.0e) to calculate the maximum number of consecutive hot days on a local scale and mesoscale. The magnitude of the trend for the considered indicator over Southeast Europe and Bulgaria is 0.52 days/10 years and 0.82 days/10 years, correspondingly.
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