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“GLOBAL WARMING” – THE LAST WARM PHASE OF THE CLIMATIC CYCLE OF “MINI-GLACIATIONS” (WITH ABOUT 1,000 YEARS PERIOD)

M. Ticleanu, R. Nicolescu, R. Damian, T. Gridan, ST. Grigoriu, A. Ion, I. Gheuca

Abstract

For a better definition of the Actual Climatic Optimum (the so called “global warming”) a detailed analysis of the Holocene climate is imperative. This paper broaches this analysis from the perspective of the “mini-glaciations” climatic cycle with a 1,000 yrs period which a series of authors took into consideration. The causes of these cycles are represented by periodical variations of the solar activity. But our analysis has covered a larger stratigraphical interval (23,000 yrs) including the W\"urm III stadial as well. Our cyclostratigraphical perspective allowed us to distinguish 3 distinct intervals separated by the special moments 10,5 and 4.7 ka BP. The first interval includes a period in which the W\"urm III stadial seems to be composed of four 1,000 yrs cycles, the Lascaux interstadial of 2.5 cycles and Older Dryas also of 2.5 cycles. A second period of this interval can be considered as reference. It contains a reference cycle (13-12 ka BP) which has at its final part the B\o lling interstadial. Between this cycle and the Older Dryas another cycle can be located (the pre-Windermere time, 14-13 ka BP). After this reference cycle another 1,000 yrs cycle starts with a cold phase (Middle Dryas) and ends with the Aller\o d interstadial (11.7-11 ka BP). This reference period of time ends with another cycle, the Younger Dryas (11 to 10 ka BP). This one includes the Heinrich event 0 (10,500 BP), a phase shift which substituted the warm phase of the cycle with a cold part. After this cycle all 1,000 yrs cycles begin with warm phases and end with the “mini-glaciations”. For the time interval 10,000–5,000 yrs BP the cold phases are: Schlaten, Venediger, CE-3, Frosnitz-Larstig and Piora I (Rotmoos I). After 5,000 BP the next warm phase was reduced to minimum by an unusual moment placed at 4.7 ka BP. The cold phase starting here lasts at the most till 2,300 BP and corresponds to the Piora II oscillation (or cold phase Rotmoos II). This conducted to a disturbed cycle of only 700 years duration. The next cold phases are: L\"obben ( CE-7), G\"oschenen I ( CE- 8), G\"oschenen II (400-750 AD) and the last one, Little Ice Age (LIA). The last three cold phases are separated by warm phases, “Roman Era” and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). The last warm phase of this cycle (the “global warming”) has begun in 1,850 AD and will last 400 yrs (with a peak around 2,050 AD). Following the disturbed cycle, the period of the cycle seems to have varied between 900 and 1,150 yrs (mean value 1,040 yrs). The last full cycle, including MWP and LIA, between 750 and 1,850 AD, had 1,100 years. In the future, with the precessional winter approaching, we expect that cold phases to be longer and evident. In any case the main cause of the “global warming” is natural. The detection of the actual anthropogenic influence is possible only with a good knowledge of the physical parameters of this last warm phase.

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