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TSUNAMI MODELING OF THE SHABLA SEISMIC AREA (BLACK SEA) USING TRIDEC CLOUD SOFTWARE
Abstract
A total number of 22 tsunamis were generated in the Black Sea in the past, as stated in the literature. Three from the twenty-two events were triggered by earthquakes occurred in Shabla area, the most dangerous one for the Romanian and Bulgarian shores, as follows: the oldest one, in Bisone area, 1st Century BC; year 543-544 AC, an earthquake of 7.5 M triggered waves of 2 - 4 m; the most recent, on 31st of March 1901, a 7.2 M earthquake generated 2.5 - 3 m tsunami waves, or 5 m according to other sources. The TRIDEC Cloud software was used for accomplishing different tsunami modeling scenarios for this area, using two past earthquakes parameters (location, depth, focal mechanism). The software was provided by the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, Germany, and is relatively recent in use by the National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP). The modeling was based on the variations of the input parameters: magnitudes were varied between 8, 7.8, 7.5, 7.2 and 7, and 4 fault plane solutions were used. The results are presented as worst-case scenarios for each magnitude value. Thus, maximum waves of 3.05 m in Varna (Bulgaria) would be triggered for a possible earthquake of M 8, with 0.6 m in Constanta (on the Romanian shore). Relatively high waves of 1.95 m (Varna) were obtained for a magnitude M 7.8, and 0.25 m in Constanta. Moderate tsunami waves of 0.80 m are given in Varna by scenarios using magnitude 7.5, with 0.11 m in Constanta. The modeling estimates low waves of 0.41 m in Varna for M 7.2, with 0.07 m on the Romanian shore (Constanta). Very low waves of only 0.15 m (Varna) are generated for a magnitude M 7, with 0.06 m in Constanta (Romania).
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References10
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