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DEMOGRAPHIC SCENARIOS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RURAL AREAS IN BULGARIA AND FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NUMBER OF THE POPULATION FOR THE PERIOD 2023-2027
Abstract
The serious demographic crisis in rural areas of the country poses great challenges to the implementation of the strategic plan for the development of agriculture and rural areas for the period 2023-2027. This determines the purpose of the publication, namely to develop and build scenarios based on them to make recommendations regarding the need for urgent, complex and non-traditional measures to overcome the demographic crisis. The estimated values of the indicators were used to prepare the scenarios: the birth rate, the mortality rate, the number of the population and the migration balance. In the calculation of the estimated values of the indicators, the method of the aging of the population was applied. The years 2019 and 2020 have been chosen as the base period. Based on the proposed three demographic scenarios, the most likely to occur is "moderate". The further trend of reduction of the population in rural areas is outlined, because the influence of natural growth on demographic processes will have a dominant influence compared to migration processes. In order not to realize the negative forecast outlined in the publication, there are some proposals for the development of regional demographic policies for the lagging parts of the country, which will help the demographic salvation of rural areas.
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References8
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The Strategic Plan for the Development of Agriculture and Rural Areas of the Republic of Bulgaria for the period 2023-2027
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