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ASSESSMENT OF THE INFLOW TO THE COMPLEX AND SIGNIFICANT RESERVOIRS FOR THE PURPOSES OF THEIR MANAGEMENT

Anna Yordanova, Irena Ilcheva, Vesela Rainova

Abstract

The updating of the used inflow data to the reservoirs from Annex 1 of the Water Act has been developed for the needs of the Ministry of Environment and Water (MoEW) and for the annual schedules of their water use. Monthly inflow with a certain probability of exceedance (PE - 50%, 75%, 95%) were estimated. The results of the development are uploaded to the MoEW website(https://www.moew.government.bg).In the report are presented and new unpublished results of the annual security assessments - annually inflows with certain probability of exceedance. The theoretical and methodological basis of the development is presented. The accuracy of the estimation of the parameters of the hydrological series and their representativeness was analyzed. About 67% of complex and significant reservoirs (from 36 reservoirs) are part of complex water management systems and connected to water transfers. Some dams have a small catchment area, associated with collecting derivatives or cascaded reservoirs. The inflow to them is relatively stable. For others, the inflow is manageable. At the request of the MoEW, an analysis of the impact of climate change was carried out at the next stage. NIMH experts' findings on climate change and their impact on runoff and extreme factors are analyzed. The relationship between the inflows to the reservoirs, the meteorological factors and the established decreasing trends of the inflows to all the reservoirs (except for the "Yasna polyana" reservoir) is conditioned. The analysis highlighted some specifics for Eastern Bulgaria, the Black Sea coast, etc., which is a prerequisite for the difference in the formation of the inflow to the dams at the local level. The developed monthly and annually inflows with certain PE are suggested as a part of the Early Warning and Decision Support System (indicators for the reservoirs inflow). The results are applied in practice for the purposes of the MOEW.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2020/3.1/s12.006

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