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COMPARATIVE FREQUENCY ANALYSIS OF FROST HAZARD IN EASTERN CARPATHIANS BASINS
Abstract
With climate change in recent years, tourists, whether foreign or domestic would prefer to assess the danger associated to some locations they visit. In this paper the analysis of temperature was preferred, because it represents the most accessible type of data for long periods, and for statistical analysis. The studied region, the Eastern Carpathians is considered as one of the coldest part of Romania, but also a touristically attractive region. We selected for analysis three majo r basins (Giurgeu, Ciuc, Intorsura Buzaului) and we also considered Toaca Peak in Ceah lau Mountains. Due to the fact that the spatial distribution of metrological stations is sparse in this part of Romania, we could consider only one station from every basi n. This situation doesn’t allow to make temperature interpolations, but can offer th e possibility to have a comparison of the probabilistic temporal evolution of the ph enomenon. In our study we use several descriptive statistic methods for characteriz ing the studied region based on temperature values, but we also made the frequency an alysis to determine the most suitable distribution law that adjust the appearance of annual extreme negative temperatures based on which we determined the return periods for th em. The resulted probabilistic values were correlated with various geom orphometric values of the basins taking account the fact that all basins are in north-south direction so the dominant wind direction is from west for them, resulting a multiple regres sion formulae to estimate the frost hazard for similar situation.
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References9
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http://age-web.age.uiuc.edu/classes/age357/html/age35711.pdf – Distribution fitting theory [01/03/2011]
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