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SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE MODELED THERMAL MATURITY IN BEGLEJ-KALENIK AREA (CENTRAL NORTH BULGARIA)

Nikola Botoucharov

First published: 2007DOI pendingView metrics

Abstract

Sensitivity maturity analysis is being used mostly in finding the best fitting parameters for thermal modeling. The sensitivity of the models in Beglej- Kalenik area demonstrates the importance of heat flow history - subject to uncertainty due to complicated geology. The specific analysis includes patterns based on two models (complex and constant), which responses are studied with respect to possible variations. The paper is focused on the conducting sensitivity analysis of sediment thermal maturity, applying different heat flow scenarios for 5 key wells. It investigates also results obtained in changing heat flow of constant model in order to fit the measured and modeled vitrinite reflectance values (\%Ro). The best fitting results of simulations show that heat flow in complex scenarios should not exceed 90 mW/m2 for rifting phases. It slightly varies between 48 and 56 mW/m2 for constant scenarios. Model sensitivity is greater after the time of deposition of Jurassic rocks, affecting mostly the maturity outcomes. If applied heat flow is complex with higher values for Triassic and Jurassic periods the hydrocarbon realization from source rocks will be earlier than in a constant model.

Publication details

Title
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF THE MODELED THERMAL MATURITY IN BEGLEJ-KALENIK AREA (CENTRAL NORTH BULGARIA)
Authors
Nikola Botoucharov
Proceedings
7th International Scientific Conference - SGEM2007
Publisher
SGEM Scientific GeoConference
Year
2007
Pages
Not available yet
ISSN
1314-2704
ISBN
954-918181-2
Language
en
Publication type
Conference Paper
Keywords
Oil and Gas Explorationcomplex and constant modelsheat flowsensitivity analysisthermal maturity
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