Scholarly record
CLASSIFICATION PRINCIPLES OF NATURAL AND TECHNOGENIC RISKS ESTIMATION IN NATURE MANAGEMENT FOR ARCTIC COASTAL ECO-SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS
Abstract
In the context of global climate change and the increasing anthropogenic impact due to the process of intensiveness of nature management in the Arctic coastal eco-socio-economic systems, there is an increase in the production of risks of natural and anthropogenic origin. The purpose of the paper is to substantiate and develop a classification system of risks of Arctic coastal nature management, sources and factors of their production as well as possible relationships between structural elements, which makes it possible to use system analysis in the construction of risk models. The proposed system takes into account features specifications to the Arctic region, related to the intensification of nature management, complex hierarchical structures of Arctic coastal nature management, the presence of unique natural and anthropogenic risks, as well as the significant role of the risk of cascade disasters and disasters of hierarchical systems. The paper presents the definition of risk with the step-by-step system of structuring (risk-source, risk-factor, risk-object) as a process of causing harm, which has the probability of implementation. This approach makes it possible to use a scenario approach in modeling the risks of cascading disasters. Classification features and specific forms of risk structural elements are shown, and an expert assessment of their relationships in the risk-source – risk-factor and risk-factor – risk-object matrices in the form of a matrix analysis of the risks of Arctic nature management. The obtained results make it possible to identify the key elements of risk implementation for various scenarios of Arctic coastal nature management, including the risks of cascade disasters in the tasks of ensuring the safety of nature management. Further research will be aimed at developing tools for implementing environmental risk management measures in order to promote the effectiveness of territorial planning processes and the sustainability of Arctic coastal eco-socio-economic systems.
Publication Impact Profile
- Captures
- Mendeley - Readers: 2
Publication details
References15
Balandin D.A., Balandin E.D., Pyhtin A.N. Priorities of spatial development of the Arctic territories, Economic relations, vol. 9, N 3, pp. 1735-1746, 2019. (In Russ.)
Darwish S. Risk Management and Insurance Practices in Protecting the GCC Economies: Impact of Climate Change, European Scientific Journal, N 14 (13), 165, 2018.
Dmitriev V., Osipov G. Integral assessment of stability of social-ecological-economic system against changes in its functioning conditions, 17th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2017, Bulgary, vol. 17, pp. 565-572, 2017.
Johannsdottir L., Cook D. Systemic risk of maritime-related oil spills viewed from an Arctic and insurance perspective, Ocean & Coastal Management, vol. 179, 104853, 2019.
Kumpula T., Pajunen A. Kaarlejarvi E., Forbes B.C., Stammler F. Land use and land cover change in Arctic Russia: Ecological and social implications of industrial development, Glob. Environ. Chang., N 21, 550–562, 2011.
Landauer M., Juhola S. Loss and Damage in the Rapidly Changing Arctic, In: Loss and Damage from Climate Change. Climate Risk Management, Policy and Governance, Springer, pp 425-447, 2019.
Lazhentcev V.N. Socio-economic space and territorial development of the North and the Arctic of Russia, Economic of region, vol. 14, N 2, pp. 353-365, 2018. (In Russ.)
Morgunov B.A., Terentiev A.A., Kozeltcev M.L. Assessment of transboundary risks and global impacts of climate change and economic activity in the Arctic Sea basins, Proceedings of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Geographical series, N 2, pp. 100-108, 2019. (In Russ.)
Abramov V., Aleshin I., Burlov V., Shilin M., Sokolov A. Geo-information and geo-ecological support tools development for environmental economics. Proceedings of the 33rd International Business Information Management Association Conference, IBIMA 2019, p. 7053-7061, 2019.
Zhigulsky V.; Gogoberidze G.; Shilin M.; Bobylev N.; Rumiantceva E. Evaluation of environmental effects of dredging in the Sabetta seaport (Kara Sea) for regional bioresources management, 20th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2020, Bulgaria, vol. 20, issue 5.1, pp. 315-322, 2020.
Gogoberidze G.; Rumiantceva E. Risk assessment of anthropogenic impact in the model of marine spatial planning at the district governance level, 19th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM 2019, Bulgaria, vol. 19, issue 5.1, pp. 663-668, 2019.
Goldsmit J, McKindsey C, Archambault P, Howland K.L. Ecological risk assessment of predicted marine invasions in the Canadian Arctic, PLoS ONE, N 14(2), e0211815, 2019.
Kulygin V.V. Development of a geoinformation resource for the risks of natural hazards for marine management, Interkarto. Intergis, vol. 24, N 1, pp. 158-166, 2018. (In Russ.)
Hjort J., Karjalainen O., Aalto J., Westermann S., Romanovsky V.E., Nelson F.E., Luoto M. Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century, Nature Communications, N 9 (1), 5147, 2018.
Konyshev V.N., Sergunin A.A., Subbotin S.V. State priority – sustainable development of the Russian Arctic, National interests: priorities and security, vol. 13, N 3, pp. 416-430, 2017. (In Russ.)
View or Download full articleAccess options
SWS access login
Login as SWS Scientific CommitteeLogin as SWS Scientific PartnerLogin as SWS AuthorAuthors and approved SWS contributors will read and export their own linked papers after identity matching by SWS profile, email and SGEM GlobalID.
For librarian assistance: [email protected]
Purchase Instant Access
- Article can be downloaded after successful payment.
- Article may be used according to SWS library access terms.
- Article cannot be redistributed.