Scholarly record
GIS BASED ANALYSIS FOR EVALUATION OF HUMAN RISK DUE TO EARTHQUAKES IN BULGARIA
Abstract
In this research, the term risk follows the definition by the United Nations (UNDRO [1]) and refers to the expected losses from a particular hazard to a specified element at risk in a particular future time period. In our case, population exposure refers to the human occupancy of hazard zones in Bulgaria, or the population present within the hazard area that would be potentially directly affected by an event. Placed at the central part of the most seismically active region in Europe, the territory of Bulgaria is surrounded by major seismic zones. The epicentral zones of Aegean Arch, the westward continuation of Anatolian fault system, the Struma-Rhodope region, the Adriatic seismogenic strip and the Vrancea area are clearly expressed on the seismic maps. Territory of Bulgaria includes important industrial and urban areas that face considerable earthquake risk. Population exposure is modelled by crossing the seismic hazard and population living in the potentially affected area. We use two input indicators: population and population density, first to give equal ?weight? of human being and second to allow comparison between less populated and more populated regions. Before calculation, both variables (seismic hazard and population/population density) are classified using separate classification schemes. The number of classes was chosen according to several criteria such as the optimum number for visual representation or the number and level of errors between classes. According to these tests, with the aim to minimize internal class distances and maximize distances between classes, the number of five classes from low (1) to high (5) was chosen. Seismic hazard is presented in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) in agreement with Euro Code 8 (EC8) for generic rock conditions (VS30=800m/s), for a 475 years return period. In addition, the impact of soil conditions through the global VS30 model is also taken into account. Information about the population is obtained from published by the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria data after the census performed in 2011. Distribution of population by municipality and distribution of population in 1x1 km grid are used for calculation of two indices: Population Exposure Index (PEI) and Population Exposure Index in Municipality (PEIM). The obtained results provide information about human exposure as an element of the seismic risk in Bulgaria. They are presented in two maps using categories from 1 to 5: minor, low, moderate, high and major. Based on that, different types of analysis can be performed concerning prevention and planning measures in case of a major earthquake, necessary resources for rescue activities, first aid supplies, etc.
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References11
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Solakov D., Metodiev M., Simeonova and P. Trifonova P., Population exposure index – an element of seismic risk assessment, 10th Congress of the Balkan Geophysical Society, Sofia, 2019, DOI: 10.3997/2214-4609.201902659
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