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FORECASTING CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL MODELLING

Valery Skvortsov

First published: 2018-06-20https://doi.org/10.5593/sgem2018/5.2/s20.059View metrics

Abstract

The relevance of the issue under study lay in the opportunity to predict climate change on the planet in the context of ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources. Will it result in global warming or global cooling? The paper aimed at revealing correspondence between greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere and temperature change. The leading approach to the problem study was a method of physicochemical (thermodynamic) simulation with the use of the ?Selector-S? software widely used in scientific researches. This method allowed tracking the dependence of the temperature change on the share of the emission of every greenhouse for long periods. The modelling has shown that with a two-fold increase in the CO2 concentration in the surface atmosphere the temperature on the planet might rise to 18.15?C by 2100. Taking into account additional emissions of CH4, it will rise to 19.42?C, N2O ? to 20.08?C, and taking into account all the gases, including chlorofluorocarbons and water vapour, it will reach 22.68?C. In the lower troposphere, with an increase in CO2, the temperature might rise to 4.63?C. Taking into account emissions of CH4, it will rise to 5.83?C, with N2O ? to 6.50?C, and taking into account all the gases, including water vapour, it will reach 7.91?C.

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Publication details

Title
FORECASTING CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL MODELLING
Authors
Valery Skvortsov
Proceedings
SGEM International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference EXPO Proceedings; 18th International Multidisciplinary Scientific GeoConference SGEM2018, Ecology, Economics, Education and Legislation
Publisher
STEF92 Technology
Year
2018
Pages
445-452
SWS Citekey
Skvortsov201820445452
ISSN
1314-2704
ISBN
978-619-7408-47-8
Language
en
Publication type
Conference Paper
Keywords
ForecastingClimateThermodynamic modelGreenhouse gases
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