Scholarly record
FORECASTING CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL MODELLING
Abstract
The relevance of the issue under study lay in the opportunity to predict climate change on the planet in the context of ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources. Will it result in global warming or global cooling? The paper aimed at revealing correspondence between greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere and temperature change. The leading approach to the problem study was a method of physicochemical (thermodynamic) simulation with the use of the ?Selector-S? software widely used in scientific researches. This method allowed tracking the dependence of the temperature change on the share of the emission of every greenhouse for long periods. The modelling has shown that with a two-fold increase in the CO2 concentration in the surface atmosphere the temperature on the planet might rise to 18.15?C by 2100. Taking into account additional emissions of CH4, it will rise to 19.42?C, N2O ? to 20.08?C, and taking into account all the gases, including chlorofluorocarbons and water vapour, it will reach 22.68?C. In the lower troposphere, with an increase in CO2, the temperature might rise to 4.63?C. Taking into account emissions of CH4, it will rise to 5.83?C, with N2O ? to 6.50?C, and taking into account all the gases, including water vapour, it will reach 7.91?C.
Publication Impact Profile
Publication details
References15
Kondratyev K.Y., Pozdnyakov D.V. Aerosol model of the atmosphere. Nauka, Moscow 1981, 134 p. (in Russian)
Chudnenko K.V. Thermodynamic modelling in geochemistry: algorithms, software, applications. Geo, Novosibirsk, Russian, 2010, 370 p.
Skvortsov V.A., Chudnenko K.V. Thermodynamic model of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and climate changes. Optika atmosfery i okeana, Russian, vol 27, pp 833 840, 2014.
Skvortsov V.A. Nanoecology a new trend in studying of polydispersed aerosol systems. Doklady Akademii Nauk, Russian, vol 444, pp 194 197, 2012.
Budyko MI Climate changes. Gidrometeoizdat, Leningrad, Russian, 1974, 258 p.
Borisenkov E.P. Climate and climate changes. Physics Series 6. Znanie, Leningrad, in Russian, 1976, 290 p.
Marchuk G.I. Modelling the climate changes and the issues of long-term weather forecasting. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya, Russian, vol. 7, pp 25 36, 1979.
Pierrehumbert R.T. Principles of planetary climate. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2010, 340 p.
Bazhin N.M. Methane in the atmosphere. Sorovskiy obrazovatelnyy zhurnal, Russian, vol. 6, pp 52 57, 2000.
Karol I.L., Kiselev A.A. Atmospheric methane and global climate, Priroda, Russian vol. 7, pp 47 52, 2004.
Dzyuba A.V., Eliseev A.V., Mokhov I.I. Assessment of the rates of methane removal from the atmosphere under climate warming. Izvesiya RAN. Fizika atmosfery i okeana, Russian, vol. 6, pp 52 57, 2012.
Golubyatnikov L.L., Mokhov I.I., Eliseev A.V. () Cycle of nitrogen in the Earth climate system and its modelling. Izvestiya RAN. Fizika atmosfery i okeana, Russian, vol. 49, pp 255 270, 2013.
Climate change. vol. 1. The scientific basis. Cambridge University, UK, 2001.
Belan B.D. Ozone in the troposphere. Institute of Atmospheric Optics, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences Press, Russian, 2010
Karol I.L., Reshetnikov A.I., Makhotkina A.L., Paramonova N.N., Pokrovskiy O.M. Changes in the greenhouse gases and the aerosol content in the atmosphere and their influence on the climate. Assessment report on the climate changes and their consequences at the territory of Russian Federation. Vol. 1. Climate changes. Rosgidromet, Moscow, Russian, pp 88 111, 2008.
View or Download full articleAccess options
SWS access login
Login as SWS Scientific CommitteeLogin as SWS Scientific PartnerLogin as SWS AuthorAuthors and approved SWS contributors will read and export their own linked papers after identity matching by SWS profile, email and SGEM GlobalID.
For librarian assistance: [email protected]
Purchase Instant Access
- Article can be downloaded after successful payment.
- Article may be used according to SWS library access terms.
- Article cannot be redistributed.
