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FORECASTING CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE BASED ON PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL MODELLING
Abstract
The relevance of the issue under study lay in the opportunity to predict climate change on the planet in the context of ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions from natural and anthropogenic sources. Will it result in global warming or global cooling? The paper aimed at revealing correspondence between greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere and temperature change. The leading approach to the problem study was a method of physicochemical (thermodynamic) simulation with the use of the ?Selector-S? software widely used in scientific researches. This method allowed tracking the dependence of the temperature change on the share of the emission of every greenhouse for long periods. The modelling has shown that with a two-fold increase in the CO2 concentration in the surface atmosphere the temperature on the planet might rise to 18.15?C by 2100. Taking into account additional emissions of CH4, it will rise to 19.42?C, N2O ? to 20.08?C, and taking into account all the gases, including chlorofluorocarbons and water vapour, it will reach 22.68?C. In the lower troposphere, with an increase in CO2, the temperature might rise to 4.63?C. Taking into account emissions of CH4, it will rise to 5.83?C, with N2O ? to 6.50?C, and taking into account all the gases, including water vapour, it will reach 7.91?C.
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