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ASSESSMENT OF HAZARDS IN THE BALTIC SEA ECOSYSTEM IN THE FUTURE CLIMATE
Abstract
The aim of this study is to assess the impact of climate change on the frequency and magnitude of marine hazards (extreme) events. The study was carried out for the Baltic Sea, which is under increasing pressure of maritime activities and becomes more vulnerable to climatic effects due to declining seasonal ice cover. Estimates of extreme events are derived from the current global and regional hydrodynamic climate models that have been used to define the marine boundary conditions, atmospheric and riverine forcing for the Baltic Sea in a modern and future climate. The frequency of occurrence of extreme events in the modern and future climate has been assessed for indicators identified by HELCOM and describing the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. These indicators include: 1) the surface winter concentration of nutrients, 2) chlorophyll-a concentration, 3) duration and area covered by hypoxic and anoxic zones in deep layers. Additionally the temperature of the photic layer is considered as the main indicator which determines the phytoplankton functioning. Model calculations using the St. Petersburg Baltic Eutrophication Model (SPBEM) were performed for the three climatic periods: the current climate - 1970-2010, and two periods to future climate - 2011-2050 and 2051-2090. Comparison of the calculated probabilities for the different areas of the Baltic Sea in the anomalies of the average winter temperature showed that the frequency of occurrence of extremely warm winter conditions in future climate will increase compared to the current climate. The probability of occurrence of extreme values of hypoxic areas in the future climate will decline. However, the area occupied by the hypoxia will increase, which apparently is due to a decrease in the winter mixing depth with climate warming. The frequency of occurrence of extreme blue-green algae blooms in the future climate will increase in the Gulf of Bothnia and decline in the Bornholm and Arkona basins.
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