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ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF FLOOD WAVE UNCERTAINTY TO RESERVOIR FLOOD STORAGE CAPACITY
Abstract
Damaging changes of landscape and interventions in the water cycle caused mainly in the last century in Czechia together with climate changes are the cause of more frequent occurrences of hydrological extremes. Recent years we have solved a lot of the drought related problem, but on the other hand, we cannot forget to the problem of extreme floods. For example, the recent regional floods in Czechia from 1997, 2002, 2009, 2010 and 2013 or the flash floods occurring every year. In these consequences developing method and tool to uncertainty analysis of the reservoir flood protection is very important and useful. In this paper, the impacts of flood wave (FW) uncertainty on reservoir flood capacity and consequent flood risks during reservoir operation were investigated. Next aim was explained how the uncertainty in determining the FW took into account in results. Random flood wave variations were obtained by repeatedly generating uncertainty on the flood input flood hydrograph. Uncertainties were generated using Monte Carlo method. The created tool was developed based on the modified Klemes method, which was able to transform the flood waves and evaluated flood capacity of reservoir. The tool allowed gradually open and close the bottom outlets for better transformation effect based on the grid optimization method. This tool was tested on the water reservoir Vir I located in Czechia. The results of repeated calculations were random routing of transformed waves and water heights in the reservoir during flood episodes including their uncertainties. The results were evaluated using the peaks of flood waves and peaks of water heights in the reservoir. The created tool could be applied to any water reservoir, if proper data exist.
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