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USE OF AN ECOMETRIC MODEL FOR DEVELOPING AN OUTLOOK FOR THE CROP SECTOR IN LATVIA
Abstract
In 2015 in Latvia, the total value of agricultural output in constant prices (including subsidies on products) reached EUR 1.25 billion, and the value of crop products accounted for 63% of the total. The world population will increase by 35% by 2050; therefore, the Latvian Agricultural Sector Analysis Model (LASAM) has been developed for making projections for agricultural industries. The overall objective of the research is to develop a dynamic simulation model for various crop sectors. The present research analysed key crop sectors, except the cereal sector. One can project that stability will persist in the segments of permanent grasses (meadows and pastures) and vegetables in Latvia until 2050. However, the production of maize for silage and green forage, rapeseed and legumes are projected to expand, while the areas of grasses sown in arable land and potato and the production of related products are projected to decrease.
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