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ASSESSMENT OF THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECT UNDER CURRENT AND CLIMATE CHANGE CONDITIONS IN ISTANBUL
Abstract
In addition to adverse impacts on ecosystem services, climate change will very likely result in the increased occurrence, duration and intensity of heat waves threatening human health and comfort, in cities in particular. This is especially due to the replacement of natural surfaces with high thermal capacity urban constructions leading to the so-called urban heat island (UHI) effect. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the UHI effect under current conditions and conditions affected by climate change over Istanbul, one of the most populous cities in the world. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to dynamically downscale global climate model simulation from the CMIP5 project for 1990, 2004 and 2050. Physical parameters were chosen to represent urban climate with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. The WRF model was used to simulate weather during July 1990 and 2004 (historical run with corresponding climate conditions) and 2050 (projected future climate conditions) forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. The performance of the model was assessed by comparing the simulation-derived skin surface temperature to satellite estimates. The study further explores within-day and monthly distribution of temperature over the city and characteristics related to UHI. The results confirm that the increasing temperature affects the formation of urban heat island in the study area. In 2050, the average monthly 2 m air temperature in July is projected to increase by 1.5 degrees under the projected future climate change. The evidence from this study suggests that making adaptations strategies for climate change should be made with the consideration of the urban heat island effect.
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