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IMPACT OF CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT ON AGRICULTURE IN SELECTED AREAS OF THE DANUBE REGION
Abstract
According to the climate scenarios and results from the models of general atmospheric circulation, the temperature increase during the growing season and more frequent dry periods are anticipated in the area of the Danube Lowland, Zahorie Lowland and Eastern Slovak Lowland belonging to the Danube Region. These lowland regions are intensive agricultural areas having an impact also on rural development and its social level. Water becomes a limitation factor of further development and sustainability. Areas experiencing water deficit during the growing season were determined based on the ratio of actual and potential evapotranspiration. The crops moisture demand and its development due to the climate change were determined using the DAYSY model. Water resources available for irrigation were assessed using the hydrological balance according to the CCCM scenarios for the time horizons 2010, 2030 and 2075. The scenarios of the development of crops moisture demand increase, development of available resources for irrigation and the frequency of dry periods in the water-deficient areas have been elaborated. The results can be used for the strategy of sustainable agricultural and rural development in the Danube region.
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