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ESTIMATING MULTIDIMENSIONAL TIME SERIES ON KEY GLOBAL CROPS PRODUCTION IN BULGARIA

Kolyo Onkov, Delyana Dimova, Nikola Tsaikin, Diana Stoyanova

Abstract

Time series on quantities, areas harvested and yield average of key global crops in Bulgaria пїЅ wheat, maize, rise and soybean пїЅ are stored in multidimensional database. The developed software modules for statistical processing are embedded into database to give better operability than known software systems with Graphical User Interface. Time series on key global crops production in Bulgaria on national and regional level are studied for the period 2002-2015. Comparative data analysis on two sub-periods with the same length is carried out. This study emphasis on the crop yield dynamic and regional differences regarding wheat and maize production. Increasing rate of wheat yields per year in Bulgaria (3.31%) and by geographical regions (1.46% пїЅ 5.11%) is estimated. Statistical analysis shows higher maize yield variations compared to wheat ones. The maize yield growing is estimated through applying weighted moving average method. The regional difference in wheat and maize yields can be explained with environmental and climate conditions (soil, temperatures, precipitation), irrigation possibilities and experience in grain production. The results of this study show positive tendency in key crops production in Bulgaria especially for wheat and maize. Scientific studies on key crops cultivation in the country, financial investments, engineering solutions and marketing efforts should work in accordance to keep this tendency.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2017/21/s07.038

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