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NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF PROPAGATION OF TSUNAMI WAVES IN THE BLACK SEA CAUSED BY THE EARTHQUAKE ON 12 SEPTEMBER, 1927

K. I. Gurov

Abstract

Tsunami in the Black Sea is a relatively rare phenomenon. Because of its rare occurrence and small volume of full-scale data, tsunami hazard of the Black Sea region has not been sufficiently studied. However, the chance of tsunami waves is still on. In the XX century, four known tsunami phenomena were recorded by marigraphs. These include two events that occurred in 1927, events of 1939 and 1966. Vertical sea level fluctuations were recorded in several points on the Black Sea coast. However, true sea level heights cannot be estimated by the gauge, because the amplitudes of the long-wave oscillations on the record are less than those of the real oscillations in the sea. Given the lack of information about tsunami in the Black Sea today, this phenomenon remains, although rare, but quite unsafe for the coast of this region. Therefore, it becomes necessary to perform numerical calculations to determine the possible wave heights as tsunami propagates in the coastal zone of the Black Sea. Numerical modeling of evolution of tsunami caused by the Yalta earthquake on 12 September, 1927 in the Black Sea basin is made. The study is performed in the framework of the nonlinear long wave model. Local elevation caused by bottom movements is transformed into a ring wave that propagates throughout the Black Sea. As a result, the tsunami wave approaches the coast as a flat wave. The level oscillations for a number of points at the coast are calculated and compared with the records of marigraphs. The maximum heights of the waves on the shore are analyzed. The calculated marigrams for several points of the Crimean and Caucasian coasts allow us to estimate the character of oscillations and the amplitude of tsunami waves. The study showed that coastal areas under the greatest influence of waves are those closest to tsunami generation source. So, the most intense waves are observed in Yalta. Such waves can cause significant damage to the population and economy of the Black Sea coast. This study helps to assess the dangers of such events and identify areas of the coast that are exposed to the destructive effects of tsunami waves in the Black Sea.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2018/3.1/s12.069

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