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MODELS OF THE IMPACT THE GLOBAL CRISIS HAS ON THE WORLD ECONOMY
Abstract
The paper describes a mathematical model of the global crisis influencing the world economy. The model is based on four conceptual positions of modeling: the level of economic development of the global economy is estimated by the system of endogenous variables; there is the interdependence of endogenous variables; there is a process background for the endogenous variables; there are certain harbingers of the crisis determined for a specific endogenous index. The model is presented as a system of three interdependent econometric equations. Each equation represents an ADL model in which current values depend both on previous values of the series and on current and past values of other time series. There is a calculation technique for the equations? coefficients in the model. The paper describes the main stages of finding the coefficients of the equations system. The model has been empirically validated on the basis of time series of endogenous and exogenous variables for the time period from 2007 to 2016.
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