Scholarly record
PROBABILISTIC SETTLEMENT RISK ASSESSMENT USING GEO-PROPPERTY VARIABILITY: A REAL-WORLD CASE STUDY
Abstract
Settlement risk is a critical concern in geotechnical engineering, especially for infrastructure on soft, variable soils. Traditional settlement estimation methods often rely on deterministic parameters, which can lead to overly conservative designs or, conversely, an underestimation of potential risks. While probabilistic approaches have been proposed to account for uncertainty, they often rely on simplified stratigraphic assumptions such as horizontal layering that limit their realism. This study addresses that gap by applying a data-driven probabilistic approach conditioned on a borehole-informed 3D stratigraphic model to assess settlement risk at a high-speed railway site. Spatial patterns are first learned from borehole data to construct a 3D stratigraphic configuration, which then conditions 2,000 realizations of two key geotechnical properties: Pressuremeter Modulus and Limit Pressure. For each realization, long-term settlement is estimated using the elastic method under project-specific loading conditions. The resulting maps of expected settlement and associated uncertainty reveal zones of higher variability that may warrant increased design attention or monitoring. The probabilistic predictions aligned with construction-phase estimates and showed a better agreement with field measurements than preliminary and deterministic estimates, which significantly overpredicted settlement. This case study demonstrates how site-specific, uncertainty-aware modeling can enhance early-stage settlement assessment and inform more robust infrastructure design, even with simplified calculation methods.
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