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PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS FOR THE CITY OF VARNA
Abstract
In the present study probabilistic earthquake, scenarios for the city of Varna the third-largest earthquake-prone city in Bulgaria are presented. The probabilistic hazard for a city is obtained by integrating the effects of ground motion from earthquakes of different size occurring at different locations within different seismic source regions and with different frequencies of occurrence. The ground motion maps for the city of Varna are generated combining via GIS, source geometry, earthquake occurrence model, maximum earthquake magnitude, and the appropriate attenuation relations. The probabilistic scenario maps are created in terms of MSK intensity, Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and response spectral accelerations for 95- and 475-year return periods. The estimated values of PGA for 95- and 475-year return periods vary along the city from 0.08 to 0.11 and from 0.15g to 0.23g) respectively. For the considered return periods the macroseismic intensity (MSK) vary from 6.4 to 6.8 and from 7.4 to 7.8 (for 95 and 475-year return period respectively). The main objective of the study is to integrate basic geo-datasets and to assess the seismic hazard using GIS to provide a basis for disaster management of the city of Varna. Spatial distribution of the obtained results is available in GIS format and can be used not only for scientific purposes but also for practical measures to reduce the risk and limit the consequences of a future strong earthquake.
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