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CHAOTIC ANALYSIS OF DISTURBANCE REGIME IN THE PRIMARY FORESTS
Abstract
Natural disturbance regimes play key roles in shaping forest structure and development at stand and landscape levels. Disturbances are complex and variable, such that classical dichotomous characterization of disturbance regimes as following large infrequent disturbances or patch dynamics is too simplistic, especially when the resulting damage is more severe than the baseline of a single tree patch dynamic, but not severe enough to represent large infrequent disturbance. Ongoing climate change affects mountain Picea abies forests in Central, East and Southeastern Europe by an increasing frequency of storms and bark beetle outbreaks. We present a unique study based on chaos theory. The most important algorithms for data representation, prediction, phase space reconstruction, dimension, ?0-1 test? are applicate here. Finally we used recurrence plots (RP) as a powerful tool for visualization and analysis. Generally RP is an advanced technique of nonlinear data analysis. RP is a graphical method designed to locate hidden recurring patterns, nonstationarity and structural changes.
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