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INFLUENCE OF CLIMATIC CONDITIONS ON THE DIMENSION OF HYDROLOGICAL MODELS
Abstract
The article considers the solving the problem arising at the mathematical modeling of hydrological processes, namely, the problem of the number of phase variables taken into account in the model. The number of variables in the model can change depending on the climate. The fractal dimension characterizes required number of variables. In the article the results of applying the established regularity of the influence of the long-term norm of surface air temperature on the fractal dimensionality of the annual runoff are considered for example the some climate scenarios. This regularity shows that in the temperature range from ?5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius, the values of fractal dimensions also increase. Further, with increasing temperature the fractal dimension decreases. And it was found that one phase variable is required to reliably describe the process of formation of the annual runoff in river basins with an average annual air temperature of more than 19 degrees Celsius. In the temperature range from 1.6 to 7 degrees Celsius, fractal dimensions have the highest dimension, exceeding two on average. Taking into account only one phase variable (water discharge) can lead to unpredictability of the probabilistic process of river runoff formation in these zones. Ignoring two more phase variables can lead to unreliable values of river runoff characteristics in the project, construction and exploitation of hydraulic structures. In depend of climate scenario the geographic displacement of zones with a high fractal dimensionality is revealed , in which the use of traditional one-dimensional probability distributions of runoff can lead to a decrease in the hydrological reliability of designed and operated hydraulic structures.
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References4
Kovalenko V.V., Gaidukova E.V., Kuassi A.B.G. Fractal river-flow diagnostics for stable description of long-term variations of hydrologic characteristics, Russian Meteorology and Hydrology, Russia, 33(4), pp 247–252, 2008. DOI: 10.3103/S1068373908040080
Kovalenko V.V., Theoretical and experimental substantiation of the correlation between the fractal dimension of long-term flow series and the climatic norm of surface air temperature, Doklady Earth Sciences, Russia, vol. 444, pp 782–786, 2012. DOI: 10.1134/S1028334X12060232
Rozhdestvensky A.V., Chebotarev A.I., Statistical methods in hydrology, Gidrometeoizdat, Russia, 1974. [In Russian]
The IPCC Assessment Reports, IPCC, 2021. URL: http://www.ipcc.ch
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