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VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF WATER SUPPLY IN THE TUNDZHA RIVER BASIN
Abstract
The study aims to analyze the vulnerability of the water supply within the water resources management system of the Tundzha River basin. It evaluates available water resources and the possibilities for their management, with a focus on the hydrological efficiency and economic feasibility of management strategies, as well as the social implications of their implementation. The methodology includes the application of a water resources balance for the entire catchment to assess the correspondence between resources and demands. Using the SIMYL simulation model, the functioning of the system is analyzed under various scenarios reflecting potential reductions in inflows due to climate change, and increasing irrigation demands - the largest water consumer in the basin, with increasing needs during drought conditions. Combined scenarios involving both factors are also examined. The results show that the system is vulnerable due to uneven spatial and seasonal distribution of water resources. During drought periods, increasing irrigation demand leads to water deficits. The analysis enables the identification of vulnerable areas and comparison of management scenarios, providing a basis for future decisions aimed at improving the balance between resources and consumption. The study offers an applicable analytical approach for a comprehensive assessment of vulnerability in a real, multi-component water management system. The results can support water supply operators, local authorit
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