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IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL IN THE SELECTED RIVER BASINS IN SLOVAKIA
Abstract
The article deals with an assessment of the impact of climate change on the hydropower potential in the selected river basins in Slovakia. The basic indicator of the potential for water energy utilization is the calculation of the so called hydropower potential (HPP). While the hydropower potential belongs to the natural riches of each country, and as it is linked to the use of the head (difference in water levels), it includes the technical and economic possibilities as well as the ecological and social priorities of the present period and the field of application for which it is set. To determine the impact of climate change on hydrological regime there are various methodological procedures. Changed climate conditions characterized in particular by the changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and air temperature in the future decades were predicted according to the latest outputs of two regional climate change models KNMI and MPI and the A1B emission scenario. To specify changes in long-term mean monthly runoff in comparison with the reference period 1981-2010 and future time horizons 2055 and 2085, we used the physically-based WetSpa rainfall-runoff model that works with spatial interpretations of hydrological balance elements in the GIS environment. An assessment of possible adaptation strategies for water management with respect to the hydropower potential and its utilization for energy production in Slovakia was attempted. The hydropower potential of small, run-of-river and storage hydropower plants is strongly related to the distribution of runoff over the year and can therefore affect not only the total change in runoff but also changes in its distribution in the future.
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