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ASSESSING THE STATUS OF FISH FAUNA IN THE VELEKA RIVER THROUGH AN ADAPTED LIVING PLANET INDEX (LPI): TRENDS AND ECOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS
Abstract
This study applies an adapted Living Planet Index (LPI) to assess long-term trends in fish populations in the Veleka River (southeastern Bulgaria) from 2010 to 2024. Based on standardized electrofishing data across seven stations, 11 native and naturalized species were analyzed using log-transformed abundance time series. The LPI declined from 1.0 in 2010 to 0.28 in 2024, indicating a 72% reduction in average fish abundance. Potamodromous species (e.g., Barbus cyclolepis, Chondrostoma vardarense) exhibited declines exceeding 80%, with some becoming locally extinct. This trend aligns with increasing summer water temperatures (+1.4 -C anomaly), diffuse agricultural pollution, and moderate hydromorphological alterations. Physico-chemical gradients revealed oligotrophic headwaters transitioning to mesotrophic and eutrophic conditions downstream, with nitrate concentrations rising from less than 0.5 to 1-3 mg/l. Linear regression showed a significant negative trend (R- = 0.758), supporting the LPI's sensitivity to cumulative stressors. These findings confirm the utility of the LPI as a biodiversity indicator at local scale and call for urgent conservation measures, including riparian restoration and nutrient load control. The study recommends integrating LPI metrics into national monitoring under the EU Water Framework Directive and Biodiversity Strategy 2030.
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