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INDENTIFICATION AND MITIGATION VULNERABILITY OF WATER SUPPLY AND ENVIRONMENT UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

Irena Ilcheva, Anna Yordanova, Krasimira Nikolova

Abstract

Water resources are vulnerable not only from climate change, but from many other socio-economic drivers of change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ?Vulnerability is the degree, to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes?. When a trend towards decreased precipitation and runoff coincides with a trend towards higher water consumption or deteriorated water quality, then the given region or river basin may turn out to be vulnerable in near or remote future. A methodology for assessment of water resources vulnerability at different climate scenarios and future water demand is developed, in international projects of the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. One part of the investigations are on the river basin level, another ? on the transnational (South East Europe, SEE) and national level. For realistic assessment of the availability and vulnerability of water resources Guidance for identification of strategic issues is applied. Critical areas are defined as where global water exploitation index is above an appropriate threshold or water shortages frequently occur. Therefore, now or in the future, drinking water supply (DWSUP) is at risk directly or indirectly (conflict with other use). Changes in climate (CC)and land use may either sharpen already critical conditions. As a result, thestrategic issues (SI) and areas of strategic importance are identified: (SI1) Largeaquifers with critical exploitation index, groundwater dependent ecosystems aredegraded, etc.; (SI2) DWSUP from small and medium springs, rivers and/or reservoirsis often limited during droughts. CC may produce more frequent droughts; (SI3)Relatively high exploitation index. During droughts alternative water resources shouldbe used; (SI4) DWSUP of large cities, etc. The adaptive capacity of natural and socio-economic systems is considered. Some investigations concerning the significance oftrends in runoff change and runoff formatting factors are carried out using the Mann-Kendall Test. Base on the results some management options for mitigating vulnerabilityare proposed. The results and application in practice are related to the River BasinManagement Plans (RBMP) and adaptive management for the purposes of WFD andNatura 2000.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2020/3.1/s12.026

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