Scholarly record

PROSPECTS OF THE OIL INDUSTRY OF OPEC+ COUNTRIES - MAJOR OIL EXPORTERS IN THE CONTEXT OF POST-PANDEMIC AND POLITICAL INSTABILITY

Gurgen Gukasyan, Ali Nasser Khayder

Abstract

The purpose of the analysis is to identify prospects and opportunities for the development of the oil industry of Arab countries (including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates. Kuwait, Qatar. Oman, Iraq) as well as Iran, Venezuela, Russia and some others), in the difficult post-pandemic and political conditions of 2022. In our opinion, there is a strong influence on the oil industry of cyclical and structuralcyclical fluctuations of the world economy, along with the environmental policy of the OECD countries, long-term trends in the consumption of fossil fuels. In this aspect, the historical approach to analysis contributes to a better forecasting of the studied problem, namely, an experience of the OPEC policy in the 20th century. At the same time, in the context of the events of 2022, there is an overlap of political factors of the development of the oil market with its economic trends. This may lead to a change in the entire configuration of the oil market and industry. The bet on the exceptionally decisive role of "green energy" does not fully justify itself due to various difficulties. The oil resource is viewed differently by developing countries and OECD. Under these conditions, it is possible to identify and justify the impact of a number of unexpectedly intensified factors and strategic directions of the development of the oil industry for key OPEC+ member countries. In the article the methods of macro and microeconomic analysis, historical approach, statistical analysis, and partly, political analysis, are used. The results can be used in further investigation of oil-exporting countries oil policy.

Publication details

Back to publication list