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POTENTIAL HUMAN POPULATION REDISTRIBUTION IN RUSSIA IN A WARMER 21st CENTURY AS PREDICTED BY A BIOCLIMATIC POPULATION MODEL

E. I. Parfenova, Nadezhda Tchebakova

Abstract

The goals of this study were to quantify the relationship between population density and climatic variables over Russia. A paired GIS-analysis of the population density layer (a dependent variable) on climatic layers of warmth and water resources and climate severity (independent variables) resulted in a multiple linear bioclimatic model of the population density in Russia. The model explained 38% of the population density variation by climate. We applied our population model to the extreme climate change scenario RCP 8.5 of the twenty CMIP5 GCMs ensemble to identify tendencies of the population density redistribution in a warmer climate by the end of the 21st century. Under the extreme RCP 8.5 scenario, winter temperature anomalies would be 6-12?? and summer temperature anomalies 4-7?? warmer, and annual precipitation anomalies 50-200 mm greater than the 1961-90 climate. When coupled with ensemble RCP 8.5 climates, our population model predicted the population density distribution across Russia. Over most of the country, the potential population density would increase, on average, but would remain low in permafrost regions in Siberia and the Far East by the end of the century. However, the demographers predict that the population in Russia may decrease by the mid-century to 92-120 mln people of 146 mln at present. Only the replacement migration may compensate for this loss of labor resources.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2020/5.2/s21.047

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