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COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS LAKE AREA DISTRIBUTION WITHIN THERMOKARST PLAINS AND THERMOKARST PLAINS WITH FLUVIAL EROSION FOR THE NATURAL RISK ASSESSMENT
Abstract
The theoretical analysis is based on the mathematical models of morphological patterns of the thermokarst plains and thermokarst plains with fluvial erosion in case of the ?synchronous start? of the thermokarst processes and little change of climate. The synchronous start means that the initial thermokarst depressions had appeared during a relatively short period and then only their size changed under thermos-abrasion or they disappeared due to their drainage by erosion streams (at the thermokarst plains with fluvial erosion). The analysis of the mathematical models gives the following results: lognormal distribution of the thermokarst lake areas should be typical for the thermokarst plains after a long development time: gamma distribution of the thermokarst lake areas should be typical for the thermokarst plains with fluvial erosion after a long development time. The empirical testing of the models was done for 34 key sites. The key sites situate at watershed plains, river and sea terraces within areas of either continuous or intermittent and island permafrost.
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