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DROUGHT VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR CROPS ACROSS ROMANIA AND LAND MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONS UNDER FUTURE CLIMATIC CHANGES
Abstract
The recurrence of droughts increased in the past decades and is foreseen to intensify affecting larger areas than today. As agriculture is among the economic sectors most vulnerable to climate change, with drought representing a key challenge for crop productions, this study assesses the probability of yield loss for major Romanian crops such as, winter wheat, maize, sunflower, grape, in response to varying intensities of drought. To achieve this, a probabilistic modeling framework was constructed, integrating the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with census yield data at county level spanning from 1990 to 2023. Our findings show distinct regional vulnerabilities and crop-specific responses. Winter wheat production demonstrates a significantly higher probability of falling below its long-term average during extreme drought conditions, particularly in the eastern and northeastern regions of Romania. For maize, the risk of drought-driven yield loss is most pronounced in the agricultural areas of southern, eastern and central Romania, while sunflower crop might face stronger losses within the southeastern fields. The study also highlights the non-linear response of yield loss risk to increasing drought severity, stressing that a simple linear extrapolation of impacts is insufficient. Under these results, we argue that Romanian agriculture should focus on soil conservation (e. g. restoration of protective shelter-belts) and water resource governance (rehabilitation and expansion of irrigation infrastructure), adaptation of cropping systems (introduction of heat- and drought-tolerant species and diversification to reduce risks), and the adjustment of agricultural calendars to align with emerging climatic regimes.
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