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MODELLING OF MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE GLOBAL RESPONSE TO ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE: IMPACT ON GENERAL CIRCULATION AND AIR COMPOSITION IN MESOSPHERE AND LOWER IONOSPHERE

Dr. Dmitry Kulyamin, Dr. Anna Makarova

Abstract

The problem of upper atmosphere and lower ionosphere response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases global increase is considered on the basis of the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences coupled atmosphere-ionosphere general circulation model (for altitudes 0-90 km). This model is a high-level numerically complex three-dimensional atmospheric circulation model (AGCM) and a part of the INM RAS climate model (INMCM), which has been developed in INM for more than 40 years and has taken part in all editions of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) model intercomparison projects (CMIP) that serve as a base for scientific assessments of anthropogenic climate changes. Earth lower ionosphere global condition is very important for radio communication and space industry and the problem of atmosphere-ionosphere coupling and connections between lower and upper layers under the influence of climate change processes is little studied and of current interest. Using a new chemical and radiation model numerical units for accurate reproduction of heat transfer and photochemical transformation in mesosphere and lower ionosphere regions in the global model, atmospheric climatic changes and its impact on the upper layers were investigated. Numerical experiment of standard CMIP design with abruptly different carbon dioxide total content was carried out to quantify the long-term response and variability of upper atmosphere and ionosphere under the condition of possible future climate. It was shown that the mean global state and variability of the undisturbed mesospheric and lower ionospheric composition for this model is essentially determined by the neutral temperature field global change which control a sensitivity of major air components in mesosphere and dayside electron concentration in lower ionosphere to anthropogenic forcing. It was also indicated that key global characteristics and circulation structure for these atmospheric layers are highly sensitive to global climatic changes (especially when compared with lower atmosphere sensitivity) and could be considered as a fingerprints of system instability.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2017h/43/s19.055

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