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METHOD OF ICEBERG HAZARD ESTIMATION IN THE KARA SEA, BASED ON REALIZATIONS OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL
Abstract
For the design and safe operation of oil and gas offshore drilling structures on the Arctic shelf, it is necessary to know the regime characteristics (frequency of occurrence, size, drift parameters) of dangerous ice features (icebergs, hummocks, stamukhas, large ice floes). In the paper we describe a method of estimating the frequency of iceberg occurrence, which is based on the implementation of a numerical iceberg drift model, and the subsequent calculation of the conditional probability of icebergs appearing in the cells of a given grid area. The model implements the calculation of numerous iceberg drift trajectories under the influence of the forces of wind, currents, sea ice, the force caused by sea level tilt and Coriolis force. Wind data are taken from the ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis, information on currents, sea level, ice parameters is taken from the results of the calculation of the diagnosis and forecast system for the North Atlantic and Arctic TOPAZ-4. The method was tested on the example of the southwestern Kara Sea. The initial generation points of icebergs correspond to the locations of the outlet glaciers of the Novaya Zemlya Archipelago. Based on the data obtained, the conditional and total probability of iceberg occurrence within the southwestern Kara Sea is calculated, as well as estimates of the probability characteristics of iceberg drift velocity - the calculation of the mean drift vectors and other statistical characteristics (drift variance, coefficient of drift variation, velocity drift distribution in directions, etc.).
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References12
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