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EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS FOR THE CITY OF BLAGOEVGRAD
Abstract
Earthquakes are the deadliest natural disasters affecting the human environment. Global seismic risk and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Furthermore, uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas in the world is often associated with the construction of buildings and infrastructure, inconsistent with the regional seismo-tectonic features and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. Some of the Europe`s strongest earthquakes in 20th century occurred on the territory of Bulgaria. An example of that are two strong earthquakes from 1904 in Kresna seismogenic zone. The seismic sequence started on 4 of April 1904, the earthquakes are within 23 minutes (the first quake with MW6.8 - a foreshock and the second, the main shock, with MW 7.2-7.6). In the present study are generated deterministic earthquake scenarios (expressed in peak ground and spectral acceleration and peak ground velocity) for the city of Blagoevgrad. The study is guided by the perception that usable and realistic, based on both local seismic history and tectonic conditions, ground motion maps have to be produced for urban areas. The local ground shaking levels are computed using six ground motion prediction equations (GMPE?s). The scenario maps account soil amplification effects using the geotechnical zonation of the considered urban area. Three scenario earthquakes with different location and magnitudes are considered. The results for scenario earthquake with MW6.5 and rupture under the city are mapped. The peak ground acceleration for the MW6.5 earthquake varies between 0.29 and 0.45g and peak ground velocity between 19 and 51 cm/s. The consideration of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on the activities following the disasters. The consideration of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on the activities following the disasters.
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