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PROBABILISTIC SIMULATION OF NON-UNIFORM ANTHROPOGENIC LOAD IN THE CONTEXT OF FOREST FIRES
Abstract
In this paper stochastic model is proposed to estimate the probability of forest fire from anthropogenic load. A point source of anthropogenic load is considered. For example, a rural settlement, a camp, an industrial site, which are located in controlled forest-covered areas. Mathematically, the following model can be formulated. Let?s consider circle with radius in the some set. Then the cumulative distribution function (c.d.f.) of ignition near the neighborhood of the point X0 can be defined. Obvious that all properties of c.d.f. are satisfied. Note, that all the points X=(x,y) that lying on the circle G? have the same probability P of ignition in the set G. This paper considers modified approach that simulate anthropogenic load around point source as non-uniform field. In this case a set of circle can be considered to simulate non-uniform distribution of c.d.f. Preliminary calculations of the forest fire probability from a point source of anthropogenic load on the basis of scenario modeling are carried out. Conclusions are drawn regarding the influence of a point source of anthropogenic load on the probability of forest fire occurrence in an adjacent territory. This model can be used in geoinformation systems to analyze forest fires occurrence due to anthropogenic load.
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