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THE FUTURE OF REGIONAL TOURISM CLUSTERS AFTER THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC: RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES (THE EXAMPLE OF THE MURMANSK REGION)
Abstract
The COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic has negatively affected all sectors of the economy around the world. At the same time, tourism was one of the most affected business sectors. The history of tourism shows that the industry is exposed to crisis phenomena earlier than any other sphere of economic activity, but it adapts to new conditions much faster and more flexibly. The crisis of 2020-2021 is usually compared with other crises that the tourism industry experienced in the 2000s in Russia. In this paper the characteristics of the crises affecting the tourism industry in Russia and Murmansk region in the 21st century and differences of pandemic crises are describing. The difference is in the protracted nature of restrictive measures for the tourism. It makes difficult to assess the impact on the industry in short period. The lack of adequate measurement of key indicators does not allow for a rapid response through effective support measures. Statistics in the field of tourism become available only six months after the end of the year of data evaluation, which does not make it possible to support the industry. The only method remains forecasting based on past periods and expert assessment of the situation in other countries. Hence the indicators of 2020 for the development of three 5-year tourism recovery scenarios in the Murmansk region were calculated and presented by authors of articles. With a favorable development of the situation, the tourism industry will restore the indicators of 2019 by 2025, with an unfavorable one, it will reach the indicators of 2011 in 2023. The data obtained formed the basis for the Strategy of the Tourism and Recreation Clusters (TRC) of the Murmansk region, approved by the Governor in April 2021. Authors also suggest the tools which can help to recover tourism industry in Murmansk region.
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