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STOCHASTIC MODELING OF OSAM RIVER, BULGARIA
Abstract
Modeling is important for river system analysis and management. The aim of the research is to apply disaggregation models to data with recovered natural river flow of Osam River located in North Bulgaria. As a result river discharge synthetic sequences are generated on monthly and seasonal discretization. We want to test applicability of the models for specific climatic, hydrological and orographic conditions in Bulgaria. Disaggregation models are from the family of stochastic models. Disaggregation models could be divided into the three main domains: temporal, spatial and temporal-spatial. The research has been done to apply selected temporal disaggregation models for flow data generation. Two basic models are executed - the Original model of Mejia and Rousselle and the Corrected extended Lin model, one-stage disaggregation. The objects for disaggregation are data with recovered natural river discharges from drainage basin of Osam River. Data from five stations along the Osam River are executed. As a result synthetic flow sequences with monthly values were generated. The comparison between the two applied models is made and discussed. We can conclude that both models are suitable for disaggregation of the recovered natural river flows with snowmelt conditions together with rainfall in the catchment areas. The models are suitable for the specific conditions in the hilly and valley regions in the country. They were tested for drainage basins with small, medium and relatively large for Bulgaria sizes.
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References9
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