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HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT IMPACT ON CEREAL PRODUCTION IN NORTHERN BULGARIA
Abstract
On the background of regional climate changes, an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme droughts has been observed in many regions of Europe in recent years, and this trend is expected to continue in the future. While common in southern Europe, including Bulgaria, drought can adversely affect human life and economic activities. Extreme droughts lead to water scarcity, restricting the availability of irrigation water for agricultural purposes. In the regions where irrigation is vital for sustaining crop production, diminished water availability can result in crop failures and economic losses. This study aims to contribute to understanding the climate-water-food nexus by assessing the impact of drought on the main cereal crops in Bulgaria, namely maize, wheat, and barley. The analysis incorporates climatic data (air temperature and precipitation), hydrological data (streamflow), and statistical data on crop yields. Drought indices such as Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) were calculated at different timescales (from 1 to 12 months) to identify drought periods. A significant decrease in yields is observed during dry years. Correlation analysis shows a clear link between drought in warm months and maize production, while the winter drought is more crucial for wheat and barley.
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