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EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS FOR THE CITY OF PLOVDIV
Abstract
Global seismic risk and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The territory of Bulgaria represents a typical example of high seismic risk area in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. Some of the Europe`s strongest earthquakes in 20th century occurred on the territory of Bulgaria. Impressive seismic activity developed along the Maritsa valley (central part of Southern Bulgaria) in 1928 - the Chirpan earthquake of April 14 with MW6.5 (foreshock) and the Parvomay MW7.1 quake of April 18 – the main event. The present study is a comprehensive earthquake scenario study. A set of 10 deterministic earthquake scenarios (expressed in peak ground and spectral acceleration, peak ground velocity, and in macroseismic intensity MSK) is generated for the city of Plovdiv. The study is guided by the perception that usable and realistic, based on both local seismic history and tectonic setting, ground motion maps have to be produced for urban area. The local ground shaking levels are computed using six ground motion prediction equations (GMPE’s). The scenario maps account soil amplification effects using the geotechnical zonation of the considered urban area. Two scenario earthquakes with different location and magnitudes are considered. The results for scenario MW7.1 earthquake generated in the northern fault are mapped. The macroseismic intensity for MW7.1 quake varies between 7 and 9 MSK, the peak ground acceleration and velocity varies between 0.15 and 0.40 g, and 11.4 and 54.2 cm/s, respectively.
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