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IDENTIFICATION AND FORECAST OF DROUGHT STATUS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MONITORING

PhD. Vergil Muraru, Math. Petru Cardei, Researcher Raluca Sfiru, PhD. Student Sebastian Muraru, Research Eng. Paula Condruz

Abstract

The paper compares the different description of drought periods in the history of annual rainfall in certain geographical areas. Drought indices are indispensable tools in detecting, monitoring and assessing drought events. These indices include: the Palmer drought index or drought severity index, PDSI abbreviated, Keetch-Byram drought index, KBDI abbreviation, drought recognition or recall index, abbreviated RDI, percentage of normal amount (average value for over 30 years), standardized precipitation index, SPI, harvest humidity index, HHI, surface water supply index, SWSI, decay technique. The results published in this article consist of few drought indices calculated for the 1936 -2010 range series of annual precipitations in the vineyard area of RomaniaпїЅs Valea Calugareasca. Using these primary results, a comparison is made between criteria for the classification of several drought indices, from both, agricultural and meteorological point of view. It is also estimated the possibility of forecasting the drought period (drought years). The description of drought periods can be done in several ways through different numerical characteristics. These features are part of a precipitation history during precipitation, rainy or humid periods and normal periods. The identification of drought condition can also be done statistically or by finding a probabilistic prognosis, but generally using some conventional or experimental limits.

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DOI resolver: doi.org/10.5593/sgem2017h/43/s19.051

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